Verisk puts $6-11bn insured loss estimate on Helene

Verisk’s Extreme Event Solutions group has estimated industry insured losses due to wind, storm surge and hurricane precipitation induced flood in the US for Hurricane Helene will range between $6-11bn.

This figure does not include US National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) losses, the catastrophe risk modeller emphasised.

On 23 September, the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) identified and designated a low-pressure system over the northwestern Caribbean as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.

Starting early on the 26, Helene began a prolonged period of rapid intensification. Helene’s wind field of tropical storm-force winds grew to be 430 miles wide, a Florida record, just edging out 2017’s Hurricane Irma (420 miles), Verisk observed.

Helene made landfall shortly before midnight on September 26 near Perry, Florida as a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph, making Helene the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the Big Bend region in recorded history (since 1851), shattering the previous record of Cedar Keys Hurricane of 1896 (125 mph), Verisk said.

Helene’s minimum central pressure at landfall was 938 mb, which is the lowest for a landfalling hurricane in Florida since Michael in 2018 (919 mb) and the ninth lowest since 1900. Record storm surge was observed farther north along the coast, including Cedar Key (9.3 feet) and Steinhatchee, which went offline after recording 10 feet of storm surge at 11:30 p.m, the cat modeller added.  

Idalia comparisons

Helene’s wind footprint scathed the Gulf coast of Florida and eventually made landfall along the Big Bend region in Taylor County. Much of the damage was similar in locality and intensity to 2023 Hurricane Idalia but with a much larger storm surge impact and footprint extent, Verisk said.

As Hurricane Helene tracked north and crossed into Georgia, the wind field extended significantly east of the track impacting large swaths of central counties. Substantial tree induced damage was observed from Valdosta up to Augusta and Savannah, the technology firm noted.

As a result of tree damage, water ingress and debris induced damages were observed across the eastern portion of the state. Wind damage to cladding, roof cover and attached structures was also widely observed and reported.

Record rainfall had fallen in three days (September 25 - 27) over southern Appalachia and in particular western North Carolina. The largest recorded three-day rainfall of 31.33 inches was observed at the North Carolina Forest Service’s RAWS station in Busick. Asheville, which was the worst hit, received 13.98 inches in three days, Verisk reported.

A wide majority of damage was related to hurricane precipitation induced flooding when it came to communities and cities in North and South Carolina. According to Verisk, flooding will certainly be the cause when it comes to insured and economic losses across these states.

“The devastation and loss of life caused by Hurricane Helene is truly heartbreaking,” said Rob Newbold, president of Verisk Extreme Event Solutions.

“This event is a reminder to the insurance industry to remain diligent in efforts to learn from and understand the profound impacts of catastrophes.

“The resilience of communities facing such devastating challenges is remarkable and we are inspired by how they have already started to rebuild and prepare for a safer future. We are committed to supporting recovery efforts however we can,” he added.

Florida building codes

Florida has a long history when it comes to the evolution and adoption of building codes. From its first adoption of the statewide building code in 2002, it has been a pioneer nationally in wind design specifications. The Big Bend region of Florida where hurricane Helene made landfall has the lowest design winds statewide, between 120 and 130 mph, according to Verisk.

The same is true for southwestern parts of Georgia that experienced strong winds from Hurricane Helene, according to Verisk. The impacts from Helene in this region from a wind perspective should be like that from Hurricane Idalia last year. A significant portion of the building inventory along the track of Hurricane Helene predate the International Codes, i.e. are built prior to the year 2000, said the cat modeller. 

NFIP and insurance take-up

Homeowners who choose to purchase flood insurance most commonly do so through the NFIP, and Florida has the highest proportion of NFIP policies of any state – about 35%, according to Fitch Ratings.

These policies typically cover up to $250,000 in damages and do not include additional living expense coverage, suggesting that even for some homeowners with flood insurance, there may be a gap between coverage and rebuilding costs., Verisk observed.

Most homeowners in these areas will not have flood insurance, given in most cases it is not required as these areas are generally outside of the designated Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs).

Monitoring Milton

Verisk said that it was actively monitoring Hurricane Milton as Florida residents prepare for the storm’s imminent arrival.

“The centre of Milton is forecast to move just north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday,” Verisk said.

“The hurricane is forecast to make landfall in Florida Wednesday night, 9 October,” the cat modeller added.